“Trends in Crime and Fear: Lessons From Chicago, 1994-2003” In Suzanne Karstedt, Ian Loader
and Heather Strang (eds.), Emotions, Crime and Justice. Oxford: Hart Publishing, 101-122.
At least since the 1970s, fear of crime has been one of the barometers by which society judges
its emotional condition. Mounting levels of fear provided a backdrop for highly charged political
debates over crime policy and criminal justice practices. However, it turns out that fear of crime does
not inevitably ratchet up; it also can go down, and dramatically so. This chapter examines the factors
lying behind this trend. Surveys conducted in Chicago between 1994 and 2004 document that fear of
crime there did drop noticeably as crime declined. The decline was a general one, and in addition
fear went down a bit more among some of the groups that were initially most fearful, including
women, African-Americans, and older residents. To explain this, the analysis focused on factors that
– unlike demography – can shift relatively rapidly, and could thus account for rapidly declining fear.
Among them were neighbourhood conditions. These were represented by measures of officially
recorded crime and by perceptions of neighbourhood conditions gathered in the surveys. Another
factor that changed during the 1994-2003 period was policing. During this period Chicago adopted a
community policing program, and the evaluation surveys indicate that awareness of the program
grew over the period and Chicagoans became more confident in their police.
The chapter presented a statistical model incorporating these individual and neighbourhood-
level factors. They explained a substantial fraction – but far from all – of the decline in fear that was
observed over time. Among the notable findings was the importance of immigration; after women
and older people, Spanish-speaking residents were the most fearful Chicagoans. This factor takes
on added significance because it is the fastest-changing feature of the city’s demographic
landscape. The effect of confidence in the police was a strong one, and awareness of the city’s
community policing program contributed to declining fear as well. Both awareness and confidence
rose during the 1990s, as the program took hold in the city. Not surprisingly, indicators of the extent
of crime, gang, drug, and social disorder problems were also linked to fear, and these too declined
for many residents during the 1990s and early 2000s.
and Heather Strang (eds.), Emotions, Crime and Justice. Oxford: Hart Publishing, 101-122.
At least since the 1970s, fear of crime has been one of the barometers by which society judges
its emotional condition. Mounting levels of fear provided a backdrop for highly charged political
debates over crime policy and criminal justice practices. However, it turns out that fear of crime does
not inevitably ratchet up; it also can go down, and dramatically so. This chapter examines the factors
lying behind this trend. Surveys conducted in Chicago between 1994 and 2004 document that fear of
crime there did drop noticeably as crime declined. The decline was a general one, and in addition
fear went down a bit more among some of the groups that were initially most fearful, including
women, African-Americans, and older residents. To explain this, the analysis focused on factors that
– unlike demography – can shift relatively rapidly, and could thus account for rapidly declining fear.
Among them were neighbourhood conditions. These were represented by measures of officially
recorded crime and by perceptions of neighbourhood conditions gathered in the surveys. Another
factor that changed during the 1994-2003 period was policing. During this period Chicago adopted a
community policing program, and the evaluation surveys indicate that awareness of the program
grew over the period and Chicagoans became more confident in their police.
The chapter presented a statistical model incorporating these individual and neighbourhood-
level factors. They explained a substantial fraction – but far from all – of the decline in fear that was
observed over time. Among the notable findings was the importance of immigration; after women
and older people, Spanish-speaking residents were the most fearful Chicagoans. This factor takes
on added significance because it is the fastest-changing feature of the city’s demographic
landscape. The effect of confidence in the police was a strong one, and awareness of the city’s
community policing program contributed to declining fear as well. Both awareness and confidence
rose during the 1990s, as the program took hold in the city. Not surprisingly, indicators of the extent
of crime, gang, drug, and social disorder problems were also linked to fear, and these too declined
for many residents during the 1990s and early 2000s.
Fear of Crime Abstracts
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